Document Type

Dissertation

Date of Award

1976

Keywords

Traffic surveys, New York (State), Buffalo (N.Y.), Local transit, Ridership, Choice of transportation, Mathematical models

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Economics

First Advisor

V. Kerry Smith

Second Advisor

Benjamin Chinitz

Third Advisor

Lorene Y. L. Yap

Series

Social Sciences

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, Public transit has experienced considerable problems in attracting riders. Much has been documented about the decline in transit use for travel activities in large urban areas. The loss of passengers has been met with increased fares and reductions in the level of service, both of which resulted in further decline in the level of use. Also, increasing affluence and greater automobile ownership, along with the decline in public transit service, have made the auto the dominant mode of transportation. In 1970, four out of five households owned a car in the United States. The nation is traveling more and consuming more energy per-passenger mile as a result of ready access to the auto. The disamenities associated with increased use of the auto, especially in large urban areas, are becoming more and more serious. The urban traffic problem is one of congestion, inadequate parking space, and pollution. Most recently, the gasoline shortage has been an added dimension of the problem.

Urban road congestion is likely to increase in large cities if car owners find it more advantageous to drive their cars than to take public transit, even under already congested conditions. Only very large cities have the capacity to exploit development of underground systems to relieve the problem. For example, Montreal devotes a large portion of underground space to subways. However, medium-sized cities are growing, and if we assume that these medium-sized cities are growing faster than small or large cities, and that they do not have the capacity to develop subway systems, then surface level public transit must compete with private vehicles for use of the highways. Eventually, congestion slows the movement of both the private and public modes.

When more cars enter the urban core, the increased demand for the limited parking space causes an increase in parking costs. Equally important, the increased volume retards the natural parking process. Consequently, not only are parking prices higher, but more time is necessary both to park and to find adequate available space.

As congestion impedes the natural flow of traffic and reduces normal traffic speeds, it also causes these vehicles to consume more gasoline, which can mean that excessive amounts of pollutants are entering the atmosphere. The extent of this pollution threat to the health of urban citizens was crucial enough to evoke concern at the national level. The Clean Air Act of 1970 was passed by Congress, thereby enforcing a national policy that all automobiles be fitted with pollution-reducing devices. Meyer and Ingram cite official estimates which suggest that it can cost from 10 to 20 billion dollars annually to clean up automobile emission alone. This is indeed a high price to pay to correct pollution effects of our existing automotive technology.

Recently, efforts to uphold the ambitious standards embodied in the Clean Air Act were overshadowed by the unanticipated energy shortage. The impact of this sudden crisis was felt through higher gasoline prices, rationing and supply uncertainty, longer waiting times at service stations, and reduced highway speed limits. While the immediate impact of the energy crisis has abated and gasoline is once again in more dependable supply, public policies recognizing energy conservation as an objective have been set in motion, and the effect of these policies on auto use should be examined.

....

The objective of this study is to measure the factors which determine modal choice. Of special interest are those factors which would improve the level and quality of service of public transit. If it is shown that demand for public transit is responsive to the quality of service characteristics, it would indicate that policy should move in the direction of improving service through those respective attributes in an effort to encourage travelers to use the more energy-efficient public transit system. In this regard, transportation planning and policy making will be consistent with energy planning and policy making. Our method is to construct a modal choice model which will account for the quality of service as well as other socio-economic factors contributing to the individual’s modal choice decision.

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