Document Type

Dissertation

Date of Award

1972

Keywords

Lebanon, Economic conditions, Economic development, Mathematical models

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Kenneth K. Kurihara

Second Advisor

John E. La Tourette

Third Advisor

Stanely Cohn

Series

Science and Mathematics

Abstract

This study is an attempt to analyze the distinct features of the Lebanese economy, its special structure, and consequences and the role that can be played by the government. At different stages, hereafter, I reference to planning models of Harrod, Kurihara, Tinbergen, and Ichimura will be analyzed in conjunction with the Lebanese experience. Data has been fitted to most of the models utilized and conclusions have been derived, and the possibilities of manipulating policy parameters are indicated. One goal for manipulating policy parameters is to enhance the rate of growth of the economy on a sustained long-run basis. Among others, the rate of growth could be affected favorably by insuring adequate supply of saving to be channeled for productive investment, by supplying adequate long and medium-term credit to agriculture and industry with proper supervision of their uses, by investing productively the budget surpluses, and by reducing the government expenditure on administration and consumption, thus releasing funds for productive investment. The role that can be played by the government to increase the overall productivity of capital (decrease the capital-output ratio) has also been analyzed.

A product of more governmental attention to agriculture and industry would be a better distribution of income both per capita and regionally, a more stable economy and a direct and indirect increase in employment opportunities. These problems have been analyzed intensively with supportive data throughout this study.

In Chapter I an analysis of the Lebanese economy is conducted stressing the problems that arise due to its special structure. Chapter II suggests a method for planning à la Tinbergen with justifications for adapting it. Chapter III analyzes and calculates the "potential rate" of growth of the economy which is discussed in conjunction with the "warranted rate" of growth. The need for foreign aid and the adequate amount needed is also discussed. Chapter IV analyzes the method used by Tinbergen, Kurihara, Ichimura and others to transform the Harrodian model into one suitable to capital scarce economies. The contributions of the private, public and foreign sectors to growth are also analyzed. Chapter V suggests some manipulative policy parameters to work with for solving the developmental problems of the economy. Chapter VI provides a summary and conclusion.

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