Modeling Flood-Induced Cascading Disruptions in the Indian Electronics Supply Chain Using Influence Network Analysis

Authors

• Surendra Orupalli, Binghamton University, SUNYFollow
• Hiroki Sayama, Binghamton University, SUNYFollow

Author ORCID Identifier

0000-0002-2670-5864

Abstract

This study investigates flood induced disruptions in the Indian electronics supply chain using influence network analysis. Monsoon floods are recurring hazards that significantly impact economic activities, logistics, and industrial productivity. This study integrates district-level rainfall data (2020 to 2025) with supply chain network models to quantify cascading failures. The methodology applies rainfall thresholds (≥ 300 mm/month) to identify flood-prone districts and constructs a stochastic influence matrix representing inter-firm dependencies. Flood propagation dynamics are modeled iteratively with a propagation coefficient (α = 0.6) and convergence threshold (ε = 10⁻⁴). The resulting disruption profiles are mapped onto company-level revenues calibrated to India-specific scales, adjusted for disruption durations (two months per year). This approach produces district and company-level economic loss estimates consistent with observed flood impacts (e.g., Chennai 2015 flood losses of USD 3 to 5 billion). Key contributions include linking meteorological hazards to systemic supply chain failures, demonstrating economic vulnerabilities at district and sectoral scales, and providing a framework for resilience planning.

Recommended Citation

Orupalli, Surendra and Sayama, Hiroki (2026) "Modeling Flood-Induced Cascading Disruptions in the Indian Electronics Supply Chain Using Influence Network Analysis," Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS): Vol. 8 : No. 1 , Article 11.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.63562/2577-8439.1164
Available at: https://orb.binghamton.edu/nejcs/vol8/iss1/11